NWS Albuquerque forecast flags monsoon flood and heat hazards

A July 25 forecast from the National Weather Service Albuquerque office described an ongoing monsoon pattern that could bring daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms, including a risk of locally heavy rain and flash flooding in the Albuquerque area.

The office said the strongest storms could produce frequent lightning and gusty winds as well as heavy rainfall. It also identified a marginal risk of excessive rainfall during the forecast period.

Heat was another concern in the forecast. Temperatures in parts of the Rio Grande Valley and eastern New Mexico were expected to reach the upper 90s to low 100s.

Flood risk can vary sharply by location

Monsoon storms do not affect every neighborhood equally. Storm placement and rainfall totals can vary substantially across the area, meaning a heavy downpour in one part of the metro may not occur elsewhere.

Still, the National Weather Service Albuquerque’s monsoon information for the metro area says intense storms can cause rapid flooding in urban and low-lying locations. Localized rainfall totals of about 2 inches can be enough to create flash flooding in those settings.

That combination of short-lived, intense rainfall and developed areas makes driving conditions and low-lying routes a concern when storms develop. Lightning and gusty winds add separate hazards even where rainfall is limited.

July and August are higher-risk months

The weather service’s preparedness information identifies July and August as the part of monsoon season when flash-flood risk increases. The agency’s materials document heavy-rain and flash-flood episodes in and around the Albuquerque metropolitan area, rather than describing flood risk as confined to one neighborhood.

The July 25 forecast is a forecast, not a report that damaging flooding occurred across Albuquerque. The approved information does not establish that the city experienced damaging flooding on Aug. 3, and it does not support a claim of a citywide flood or emergency declaration.

Forecast timing requires an updated check

The National Weather Service Albuquerque office issued the cited forecast on July 25. The approved material does not provide a specific issuance time or an expiration time for the forecast period, and the available page was last updated before Aug. 3.

As a result, the forecast documents the monsoon hazards and heat risk identified at that time but should not be treated as a current warning. It also does not establish a connection between this weather pattern and long-term climate change.